File:BTCvolatility.svg

Summary[edit]

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Updated data up to 6 October 2021.

blockchain.com only provides data for 1 in 3 days. That is less than the 252 or 261 samples per year used on volatility calculation for the stock market. This is why I have used a different data source (bitcoinvisuals.com). Lack of precision of no more than one cent of a dollar on low prices around year 2010 accounts for a significant part of the lack of precision on the volatility at the left side of the chart. Thus volatility in early 2011 is not accurate.

I provide line chart of EWMA volatility, one price sample per day for 365 contiguous days, λ with value 0.94, divided by 261 days (as it is typical in stock market calculations).

Volatility formula on chart: ${\displaystyle \sigma ={\sqrt {261}}{\sqrt {\sum _{i=0}^{364}(1-\lambda )\lambda ^{i}(r_{t-i-1}-{\overline {r}})^{2}}}}$